Deadline for Iran Nuclear Accord in Doubt

Deadline for Iran Nuclear Accord in Doubt

Posted by Unknown on November 12, 2014

MUSCAT, Oman—Global powers and Iran signaled they will extend their diplomacy beyond a Nov. 24 deadline if necessary, as three days of talks aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program failed to win any major breakthroughs. 

Senior U.S., Iranian and European diplomats stressed Tuesday that their negotiations in the Persian Gulf nation of Oman, which included direct meetings between Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, solely focused on forging a comprehensive nuclear deal by late November.

But diplomats involved in the Muscat talks also acknowledged that the limited advancements made here could lead the negotiators to extend their talks beyond Nov. 24. 

Many said the negative fallout from a diplomatic failure could be too great for a region already facing rising instability in countries ranging from Syria to Yemen. The talks involved Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, a diplomatic bloc knows as the P5+1. 

“If by whatever reason, by whatever development, we’re not there, I think we will have time in the evening of the 23rd to develop an alternative, to develop a solution, that would not kill the chances,” Russia’s lead negotiator at the talks, Sergei Ryabkov, told reporters. “But that would be the worst possible outcome.”

Iran’s deputy foreign ministers, Abbas Araghchi, stressed his government was working around the clock to reach a deal by the deadline, but indicated their wasn’t enough time. 

The talks between the U.N. Security Council and the state of Iran are approaching the Nov. 24 deadline for reaching a deal on the country’s nuclear program. WSJ’s Jerry Seib explains the U.S. strategy.

“We are not still in the position to say we made progress,” Mr. Araghchi told Iranian state media in Muscat. “We are hopeful we will make it, though it will be very difficult.”

The U.S. suspects Iran has a clandestine program to develop nuclear weapons, which Tehran has denied.

U.S. officials have said privately in recent days that an extension may be sought. But publicly, top aides to President Barack Obama said that Nov. 24 was still the focus of their diplomacy, which will move to Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 18 for a week of talks up to the deadline.

“We have not focused in discussions with Iran on extending those discussions because we want to keep the focus on closing gaps,” Ben Rhodes, a White House deputy national-security adviser, said Tuesday in Beijing where he was traveling with the president.

Seeking an extension would pose numerous political and diplomatic challenges, diplomats involved in the talks said. 

Reaching an agreement on balancing freezes in Iran’s nuclear program with economic incentives during the additional diplomacy could prove nearly as complicated as forging a final deal, they said.

Also, the capturing of the U.S. Senate by the Republican Party last week could limit the White House’s diplomatic flexibility. Republican leaders have already said they are preparing legislation to impose new sanctions on Iran if an agreement isn’t reached this month—a step that might kill further diplomacy. And these lawmakers said they will seek to ensure the talks don’t run on indefinitely. 

Iran’s negotiating team in Muscat asked their American interlocutors about how the political changes in Washington could affect their diplomacy, according to a senior U.S. official.

“You chat when you’re in the lunch table or milling around. Obviously, issues in the news come up,” the senior U.S. official said of the election talk. “But I wouldn’t overemphasize that in terms of being part of the negotiations.”

Some participants said they believed to reach agreement on an extension, the parties will need to establish at least the broad parameters of an agreement to get political support at home. “There has to be something on paper,” said a senior Arab official involved in the talks. Washington’s closest Middle East allies, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia, are scrutinizing the talks and potentially limiting the White House’s diplomatic options. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday voiced alarm when he said he’d heard that an agreement was close to being signed. He said he sent letters to all the members of the P5+1 bloc to urge them not to sign an agreement that doesn’t go far enough in denying Iran the capability to make nuclear weapons.

Iran insists its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes only such as producing energy and medical research.

“This terrorist regime in Iran must not be allowed to become a nuclear threshold power,” Mr. Netanyahu told a news conference. American officials traveling with Mr. Kerry said they didn’t know why the Israeli leader believed an agreement was imminent.

Iran, the U.S. and other global powers are seeking agreement on a formula that will assure the international community that Tehran isn’t seeking to develop atomic weapons while still allowing it to develop a civilian nuclear program. In turn, the U.S. and European Union would be required to loosen economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s finances in recent years.

The main sticking points in the talks, according to U.S. and European officials, are the future scope of Iran’s nuclear capacity and the speed at which the Western sanctions would be removed.

The Obama administration has sought to significantly limit Tehran’s ability to produce nuclear fuel through the enrichment of uranium. U.S. officials have said Iran should only be allowed to maintain a few thousand centrifuge machines used to enrich uranium, while Iranian leaders have said they would eventually need hundreds of thousands. 

Other issues that remain in dispute are the future of an Iranian heavy water reactor that will be capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium when it goes on line. The U.S. and its diplomatic allies are also seeking to drastically reduce Iran’s stockpile of nuclear materials.

U.S. officials have also voiced concerns that some of their P5+1 partners, particularly Russia, could break from the diplomatic bloc if the talks drag on too long. Moscow has significant business interests in Tehran and has opposed sanctions on the country. On Tuesday, Moscow announced it had expanded a nuclear cooperation agreement with Iran that will see it enlarge a reactor complex Russia built in the coastal city of Bushehr. 

U.S. officials didn’t voice alarm about the deal, noting that it had long been in the works. But Russians have said they’re seeking to significantly increase their energy dealings with Tehran.

“We are continuing the cooperation with Iran in the civilian nuclear sphere, in building new reactors to generate electricity,” Mr. Ryabkov said, noting that the fuel would be produced in Russia and reprocessed there over the entire life of the plants.